Links for Thought -- October 11th, 2013

The Secrets of Shopping (Chicago Booth, Capital Ideas) -- This is one of the more interesting reads I've come across in a while. Nielson, in conjunction with Booth collected years of household purchase data on products ranging from groceries to painkillers. Some of the early analysis clearly demonstrates that without the proper knowledgebase, consumers are easily steered astray from rational decisions for behavioral reasons. This piece is amazingly informative for investors and shoppers alike.

Mogul's Plan to kill Netflix (Quartz) -- John Malone earned his fortune building a cable empire and made plenty more money dabbling in content. Now Malone is trying to use some of these lessons in order to empower the cable companies to unite (um collude) to drive down content costs and squeeze Netflix out from its successful niche as a low-cost distributor in its own right.

Eurozone debt crisis: Timeline (The Telegraph) -- Why is this timeline from 2011 relevant today? I was trying to avoid any mention of the debt ceiling this week, but here goes: today people speak of the Summer of 2011 as if the market's turmoil was entirely based on "The Debt Ceiling Crisis" when in fact, the market's gyrations were far more attuned to the very real (as opposed to manufactured) crisis that was unfolding in Europe. 

Guy Spier - Build your life in a way that suits you (Graham & Doddsville) -- Skip the needlessly apologetic feature on Koch Industries and their value and read Guy Spier's interview. Guy is one of the most self-aware investors out there in explaining how his investment process, and his role in the investment industry fits with his personality.  Many of us young up-and-comers in the industry can learn so much from someone like Guy, and we should be thankful he is open to sharing these insights as he is.

How the feds took down the Dread Pirate Roberts (ArsTechnica) -- Fascinating feature on how the FBI tracked down and built a case against the man behind Silk Road, a Bitcoin exchange often used for selling drugs. The Austrian econ/libertarian/anarchist connection to the Bitcoin story makes this even more interesting and goes to show that even in a pseudo-economy founded on the principles of fragmentation and individuality, some kind of centralization of power is inescapable 

The FBI and the legitimation of the bitcoinverse (Felix Salmon) -- Have I told you I'm fascinated by Bitcoin yet? There are so many interesting elements, ranging from crime drama to econ experiment. Here Felix talks about how the aforementioned FBI bustup of Silk Road helps legitimize Bitcoin and I cannot help but agree.  With this cleanup, and venture capitalists like Fred Wilson and Marc Andreesen taking interest, there is now a clearer path to a digital economy built on the currency. This all has great potential, until the inevitable deflationary collapse comes crashing in, but until then... (I'll have to expand on this entire theme into a blog post soon).

Bobby Orr is focused on doing good -- quietly (The Boston Globe) -- Today, when even B-listers are Twitter heroes, there is something to be said about a quiet, understated humility. Bobby Orr is one of the all-time great hockey players (and many would argue he's the single greatest), yet because he pursues his charitable and humanist endeavors in such a quiet manner, we rarely hear about his important contributions to society. Simply put, he's a great guy.

Speaking of hockey, here is Tomas Hertl, who some are calling "The Next Great One" scoring what just might stand as the goal of the season when all is said and done.

The Answer to the Eurozone Crisis was Written in 1787

When I last focused on the EU in this blog, I took a look at why Italy doesn't worry me too much.  I omitted Spain from this analysis purposely, because what placated me with regard to Italy just did not exist in Spain despite Spain's lower overall stated sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio.  Since that time, the Eurozone had calmed down, but during my blogging hiatus things once again flared up.  Now, I think it's time to take a much deeper look at the EU and what it all means, because this has become far bigger than an economic question.  More specifically, I am firmly in the camp that sees the Eurozone crisis as a constitutional crisis, not an economic one.  

Since World War II, the European Continent has moved towards a unified economy, without unifying any of the institutions necessary to manage and enforce a centralized currency.  As a political philosophy guy, this is seriously fascinating stuff, as we are witnessing history in the making, while as an investor it's skewed to the scary side of things.  The uncertainty is great, however, for you history buffs out there, the clearest parallel to Europe's present predicament is the United States under the Articles of Confederation.  

As a refresher, the Articles of Confederation governed the United States in the time period between the American Revolution and the Constitution, where States existed as de facto sovereigns and no strong centralized power existed.  In response to growing economic and political failures, and rising social tensions, the leading intellectuals and political figures in young America gathered in Philadelphia to "form a more perfect Union."

Unfortunately, and contrary to the linear path with which history is narrated, the Constitution was not instantly greeted with excitement and acceptance.  As a result, the Founding Fathers had to go to great lengths to ensure its passage, especially in the "core" states of New York and Virginia.  Alexander Hamilton was a particularly important architect of our form of American Federalism and was a key emissary for the State of New York (in fact, he was the only New Yorker to sign the document).  To help get New Yorkers and Virginians to vote "yay" for the Constitution, Hamilton and James Madison wrote what are now known as The Federalist Papers under the pseudonym "Publius."  It's amazing how relevant these papers remain today.  

To be clear, I did not originally conceive of this idea of the EU as the pre-Constitutional US.  I first encountered the parallel in some of Bridgewater's excellent economic research available on the WWW.  Instantly the parallel resonated with me, and as a result, I started re-reading some of the relevant American History.  No one document struck me as more important today than Federalist #15.  It's as if Alexander Hamilton wrote each and every word directed at the powers that be in the EU today. 

Hamilton so adeptly incorporates the political, economic and ultimately the human emotional element into constructing a deeper understanding of the failures of a weak, centralized confederacy of interests.  Interestingly, Hamilton briefly gets into the history of failed attempts at confederation in Europe and their collapse at the hands of individual constituency interests.  Ultimately, he makes it abundantly clear why no sovereign interests can unite without unified institutions that have real powers of enforcement.

Below are a few excerpts from  Federalist Paper #15, entitled "The Insufficiency of the Present Confederation to Preserve the Union" but I urge all interested parties to read the whole thing:

In pursuance of the plan which I have laid down for the discussion of the subject, the point next in order to be examined is the "insufficiency of the present Confederation to the preservation of the Union." It may perhaps be asked what need there is of reasoning or proof to illustrate a position which is not either controverted or doubted, to which the understandings and feelings of all classes of men assent, and which in substance is admitted by the opponents as well as by the friends of the new Constitution. It must in truth be acknowledged that, however these may differ in other respects, they in general appear to harmonize in this sentiment, at least, that there are material imperfections in our national system, and that something is necessary to be done to rescue us from impending anarchy. The facts that support this opinion are no longer objects of speculation. They have forced themselves upon the sensibility of the people at large, and have at length extorted from those, whose mistaken policy has had the principal share in precipitating the extremity at which we are arrived, a reluctant confession of the reality of those defects in the scheme of our federal government, which have been long pointed out and regretted by the intelligent friends of the Union.

...

It is true, as has been before observed that facts, too stubborn to be resisted, have produced a species of general assent to the abstract proposition that there exist material defects in our national system; but the usefulness of the concession, on the part of the old adversaries of federal measures, is destroyed by a strenuous opposition to a remedy, upon the only principles that can give it a chance of success. While they admit that the government of the United States is destitute of energy, they contend against conferring upon it those powers which are requisite to supply that energy. They seem still to aim at things repugnant and irreconcilable; at an augmentation of federal authority, without a diminution of State authority; at sovereignty in the Union, and complete independence in the members. 

...

There is nothing absurd or impracticable in the idea of a league or alliance between independent nations for certain defined purposes precisely stated in a treaty regulating all the details of time, place, circumstance, and quantity; leaving nothing to future discretion; and depending for its execution on the good faith of the parties. Compacts of this kind exist among all civilized nations, subject to the usual vicissitudes of peace and war, of observance and non-observance, as the interests or passions of the contracting powers dictate. In the early part of the present century there was an epidemical rage in Europe for this species of compacts, from which the politicians of the times fondly hoped for benefits which were never realized. With a view to establishing the equilibrium of power and the peace of that part of the world, all the resources of negotiation were exhausted, and triple and quadruple alliances were formed; but they were scarcely formed before they were broken, giving an instructive but afflicting lesson to mankind, how little dependence is to be placed on treaties which have no other sanction than the obligations of good faith, and which oppose general considerations of peace and justice to the impulse of any immediate interest or passion.

...

Government implies the power of making laws. It is essential to the idea of a law, that it be attended with a sanction; or, in other words, a penalty or punishment for disobedience. If there be no penalty annexed to disobedience, the resolutions or commands which pretend to be laws will, in fact, amount to nothing more than advice or recommendation. This penalty, whatever it may be, can only be inflicted in two ways: by the agency of the courts and ministers of justice, or by military force; by the COERCION of the magistracy, or by the COERCION of arms. The first kind can evidently apply only to men; the last kind must of necessity, be employed against bodies politic, or communities, or States. 

...

There was a time when we were told that breaches, by the States, of the regulations of the federal authority were not to be expected; that a sense of common interest would preside over the conduct of the respective members, and would beget a full compliance with all the constitutional requisitions of the Union. This language, at the present day, would appear as wild as a great part of what we now hear from the same quarter will be thought, when we shall have received further lessons from that best oracle of wisdom, experience. It at all times betrayed an ignorance of the true springs by which human conduct is actuated, and belied the original inducements to the establishment of civil power. Why has government been instituted at all? Because the passions of men will not conform to the dictates of reason and justice, without constraint. 

...

From this spirit it happens, that in every political association which is formed upon the principle of uniting in a common interest a number of lesser sovereignties, there will be found a kind of eccentric tendency in the subordinate or inferior orbs, by the operation of which there will be a perpetual effort in each to fly off from the common centre. This tendency is not difficult to be accounted for. It has its origin in the love of power. Power controlled or abridged is almost always the rival and enemy of that power by which it is controlled or abridged. This simple proposition will teach us how little reason there is to expect, that the persons intrusted with the administration of the affairs of the particular members of a confederacy will at all times be ready, with perfect good-humor, and an unbiased regard to the public weal, to execute the resolutions or decrees of the general authority. The reverse of this results from the constitution of human nature.

...

All this will be done; and in a spirit of interested and suspicious scrutiny, without that knowledge of national circumstances and reasons of state, which is essential to a right judgment, and with that strong predilection in favor of local objects, which can hardly fail to mislead the decision. The same process must be repeated in every member of which the body is constituted; and the execution of the plans, framed by the councils of the whole, will always fluctuate on the discretion of the ill-informed and prejudiced opinion of every part. 

...

In our case, the concurrence of thirteen distinct sovereign wills is requisite, under the Confederation, to the complete execution of every important measure that proceeds from the Union. It has happened as was to have been foreseen. The measures of the Union have not been executed; the delinquencies of the States have, step by step, matured themselves to an extreme, which has, at length, arrested all the wheels of the national government, and brought them to an awful stand.

...

Why should we do more in proportion than those who are embarked with us in the same political voyage? Why should we consent to bear more than our proper share of the common burden? These were suggestions which human selfishness could not withstand, and which even speculative men, who looked forward to remote consequences, could not, without hesitation, combat. Each State, yielding to the persuasive voice of immediate interest or convenience, has successively withdrawn its support, till the frail and tottering edifice seems ready to fall upon our heads, and to crush us beneath its ruins.

Why Italy Doesn't Worry Me

With Greece once again making front-page headlines, the attention, as it often does, is seeking the “next crisis.”   Just like this Summer, to many the next phase involves the inclusion of Italy in the Euro-induced panic.  Why Italy?  Many of the reasons are obvious: Italy is carrying a $2.1 trillion budget deficit accrued over years past (all dollar figures cited throughout are Euro’s converted into dollars at today’s $1.324/€1 exchange rate), the country is infamous for a perpetually corrupt economy, and the nation’s politics are equally dysfunctional.  In many respects, Italy remains a pseudo-fascist state, where government and business are largely intertwined and collectively unproductive. Yet despite these notorious problems, Italy does not concern me, as much of the crisis argument for the country hinges on the manipulation of numbers while willfully ignoring the rich assets the country possesses. 

This past summer, yields on Italian bonds surged above 7%.  This forced long-time Silvio Burlesconi, a man who survived numerous scandals, to finally depart leadership, and drove the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy Italian debt on the open market to help drive down yields.  In fact, it was the spread of contagion to Italy that provoked the more acute phase of this Summer’s Euro crisis that ultimately drove the European Union to embrace a fundamental rethinking of the Maastricht Treaty.  Italy entering the crisis faze was (and remains) concerning because of its size relative to Greece.  To make matters worse, Italy needs to refinance over $300 billion of its legacy debt in 2012, an amount which in and of itself is nearly as large as Greece’s entire deficit.  By that token, as the Forbes article linked to above suggests, “Italy is too big to bail out.”  Fearmongerers love using size to their advantage as it relates to the Italy “problem,” but they equally love ignoring size when the topic becomes the relativity of Italy with Greece, so let’s take a deeper look.

Let me start with this caveat: this is not an argument for or against privatizations in Italy, or anywhere else for that matter.  I am merely going to lay out a few of the assets that the Italian government positively owns, in order to highlight my belief that this is a crisis of liquidity and not one of solvency, and as such, it is very much a transitory event  as it pertains to Italy.  In the future, I will be sure to discuss my beliefs on the Euro as a currency in more depth, for that will shed further light on my argument that Italy is not a concern in the first place.

Italy vs. Greece—Some Relativity

What makes matters appear far worse than they actually are for Italy is the frequency with which people are stacking the country’s $2.1 trillion deficit against Greece’s $456 million deficit to highlight the “greater magnitude” of Italy’s problem.  To the lazy eye this looks frightening, yet it’s not— the fearmongerers are intentionally aiming their appeal towards the lazy eye.  What they don’t want you to know is that Italy’s GDP dwarf’s Greece’s (Italy’s is greater than $2.1 trillion, while Greece’s is a mere $329 million).  Further, these numbers are solely looking at accrued deficits from years past and in no way reflects the fact that Italy is running a SURPLUS (yes you read that right) of approximately 0.8% of GDP this year, while Greece is in a tailspin.  Quite simply, the situations are not analogous.  It is merely the size of Italy combined with the “what if” that drives the fear, whereas in Greece the problem is fundamental and existential as it pertains to the country’s continued inclusion in the Eurozone. 

A Wealth of Assets in Italy

Let me start with a question: which country in the world has the third largest gold reserves after the U.S. and Germany? 

Clearly the answer I’m getting at is Italy.  Italy has immense gold reserves that serve no functional purpose for the country at this point, especially since they themselves are not sovereign over their own currency.  At today’s price of ~$167/ounce, Italy owns $14.4 billion worth of gold.  This alone accounts for 6.9% of Italy’s budget deficit.  The concern that Italy’s deficit will persist in perpetuity is a core argument of the fearmongerers, therefore the value of using that gold to pay down the deficit is far greater than the value of the actual gold itself.  Viewed as a perpetual obligation at Italy’s present 5.5% interest rate on the 10 year note, the paying down of $14.4 billion of debt amounts to a net present value of a $262 billion gain.  I like to think of the benefit this way because Italy is carrying a primary surplus right now, and as such, dropping its perpetual debt burden substantially alters the country’s present and future outlook for the better.  The cost-to-carry of the debt instantly drops, as should concerns over refinancing 14% of the country’s outstanding debt during the course of 2012. 

Now let’s get to where Italy really has substantial wealth—public ownership of corporate enterprises.  In the time leading up to World War II, the fascist regime of Benito Mussolino used the government as a means through which to build corporate Italy.  While fascism was defeated in World War II, the legacy of government intertwinement with business in Italy never ceased.  In fact, it was the primary method through which Italians rebuilt and moved forward in the aftermath of the War, with some generous help from Uncle Sam in the form of the Marshall Plan.  Largely due to this history and a dose of corruption, the Italian government continues to own substantial business interests within the country.  Below is a select sample of a few of these interests.

First up is Poste Italiane, the Italian “post office.”  I say post office in quotes, because while the company does postal services, it is not your run-of-the-mill post office.  Poste Italiane operates several lines of businesses including logistics (which does have a natural connection to package delivery), financial services, insurance, phone calling cards, and even semi-conductor manufacturing.  In 2011, Poste Italiane brought in $28.9 billion in revenues and had nearly $2.5 billion in operating income.  Further, the European Union has rules and restrictions on post offices, and is trying to liberalize and even phase out some of the government postal services themselves.  As is typical for Italy, the country has been slower than slow in pursuing these liberalizations, as evidenced by this quote from the Consumer Postal Council: “The target date for full liberalization had been postponed several times [by the European Union], and Italy took full advantage by refusing to liberalize its market ahead of schedule.”  Why does this matter?  Well again, an interest in a profitable business like Poste Italiane could easily be worth $25 billion on the private market (this is a rough earnings power valuation of a company generating $1.5 billion in sustainable EBIT). 

Luckily for Italy, Poste Italiane is just the tip of the iceberg for government ownership of industry.  The Italian government is also the full owner of Fincantieri, the largest ship-builder in the Mediterranean.  While the company is not nearly as profitable as Poste Italiane, the state ownership is notable, for why does the Italian government even have the full ownership of a company that today is known for being the premier manufacturer of luxury yachts in the world?  At one point in history, Fincantieri served a purpose for the government in manufacturing military vessels, yet now the company is better known for building super-yachts for Europe’s elite playboys to cruise the Italian Riviera and the Amalfi Coast.  Fincantieri suffers from government’s inability to efficiently manage the business as is evidenced on its 4% operating margin on over $3.5 billion in revenues.

One of the prizes of Italy’s ownership interests in corporations is Eni, a publicly traded conglomerate with a market cap of $91 billion today.  The government owns 30% of the company, a stake worth $27.3 billion on the open market.  Eni, an integrated energy company involved in exploration and production and the delivery of oil and natural gas, makes $21.3 billion in operating profit and over $8.3 billion in net income.  As of today, the company is valued near the low-end of its five year trading range, and outside a crisis environment could be worth far more down the road. 

Lastly, let’s briefly talk about Italy’s public interest in broadcast and media.  In my opinion, this is a pretty big no-no for a liberal democracy to begin with, especially in light of the fact that the recent Prime Minister owned the largest private media empire in the country, while pulling the strings at a substantial state-run enterprise.  In essence, the media and the government were inseparable, and this helped Burlesconi consolidate his grip on power for so long.  This is a greater than $3 billion in revenue business, that includes ownership over Cinecitta, the largest cinema studio in Europe, and the crown jewel of Mussolini’s propaganda initiatives during World War II.  Many a great Sofia Loren films, and more recently Gangs of New York and The Life Aquatic were filmed there  It’s no wonder that outsiders view Italy as helplessly corrupt.   Needless to say, there is tangible asset value here, that given the need, Italy could monetize in order to bring their debt burden under immediate control.

In Sum:

I have outlined approximately $73.2 billion dollars of tangible value (or 3.4% of the deficit) that Italy could monetize should the need arise, and this is far from an exhaustive list (please note that the $73.2 billion figure counts Italy’s gold value at $14.4 billion, and not the more generous $262 billion benefit the country would gain from removing a perpetual liability from its balance sheet, as would be the case with any of these other valuable assets).  In addition to gold and corporate interests, the country owns billions of dollars worth of real property. While this would not extinguish all liabilities entirely, even the most gloomy of observers doesn't think that is what's necessary.  The key is to restore the debt to what the market perceives to me a manageable level, which in and of itself will drive down yields and make the cost of carry that much less.

Despite these facts, fear itself is contagious and that is clearly evidenced by the concern over the country in debt markets today.  Italy is not running a deficit as of today, and as I have highlighted above, the country owns substantial assets.   I cannot help but think that one catalyst for the contagion of fear is the market trying to force the country’s hands into privatizing these aforementioned lucrative assets.  In past debt crises around the globe (Latin America serves as an outstanding case study), substantial state owned assets were privatized in order to cover public borrowings.  In the process, many profited directly by positioning for a crisis and then deployed their gains along with those who stayed on the sidelines in order to make substantially more money in scooping up newly private assets at dirt cheap prices.  To many, a crisis is an opportunity and that is precisely how Carlos Slim became the wealthiest man in the world.